Match preview
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc prediction
Coritiba
11 in the table · 27 pts from 21
Chapecoense-sc
20 in the table · 10 pts from 20
Sat, Aug 8, 07:30 PM
Curitiba
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Coritiba the more likely winner at 58%, against 18% for Chapecoense-sc and 24% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 54%. Behind that: Coritiba have scored in 14 of 21 league games this season, Chapecoense-sc in 12 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Coritiba win
58%
Draw
24%
Chapecoense-sc win
18%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.9 – 1
Total goals 2.9
Both teams score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Over 1.5 goals
79%
Coritiba clean sheet
37%
Chapecoense-sc clean sheet
15%
What stands out
Cards 3.7
18% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Coritiba 1.6 + Chapecoense-sc 2.1 per game
match.offsides 2.9
18% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Coritiba 1.3 + Chapecoense-sc 1.6 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
39%
Shots
Neto Pessoa
Chapecoense-sc
2
Coritiba · on target
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
0.7
Chapecoense-sc · on target
Neto Pessoa
Chapecoense-sc
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Coritiba
At home- 1.2
- pts/game
- 1.1
- scored
- 1.2
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 21
- Clean sheet in 20%
When their goals arrive
Chapecoense-sc
Away- 0.3
- pts/game
- 0.6
- scored
- 1.7
- conceded
- Scored in 12 of 20
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Coritiba · Recent form
- L0-1Cruzeiro
- D0-0RB Bragantino
- L1-3Palmeiras
- L0-3Flamengo
- W3-2Bahia
Chapecoense-sc · Recent form
- L0-2Cruzeiro
- D0-0Cruzeiro
- D2-2Santos
- L0-4Flamengo
- L0-2Bahia
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Golazo's model makes Coritiba the more likely winner at 58%, with the draw at 24%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 54%, and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.