Match preview

Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc prediction

Coritiba

11 in the table · 27 pts from 21

Chapecoense-sc

20 in the table · 10 pts from 20

Sat, Aug 8, 07:30 PM

Curitiba

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Coritiba the more likely winner at 58%, against 18% for Chapecoense-sc and 24% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 54%. Behind that: Coritiba have scored in 14 of 21 league games this season, Chapecoense-sc in 12 of 20.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Coritiba win

58%

Draw

24%

Chapecoense-sc win

18%

Most likely scorelines1112%2010%2110%

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.9 1

Total goals 2.9

Both teams score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Over 1.5 goals

79%

Coritiba clean sheet

37%

Chapecoense-sc clean sheet

15%

What stands out

  • Cards 3.7

    18% below a typical match · League average 4.5

    Coritiba 1.6 + Chapecoense-sc 2.1 per game

  • match.offsides 2.9

    18% below a typical match · League average 3.5

    Coritiba 1.3 + Chapecoense-sc 1.6 per game

Corners

League average 5

Coritiba6.1
Chapecoense-sc4.4

Cards

League average 2.25

Coritiba1.6
Chapecoense-sc2.1

Shots

League average 12.5

Coritiba12.9
Chapecoense-sc10

Possession

Coritiba52
Chapecoense-sc48

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

Breno Lopes

Coritiba

39%

Shots

Neto Pessoa

Chapecoense-sc

2

Coritiba · on target

Pedro Rocha

Coritiba

0.7

Chapecoense-sc · on target

Neto Pessoa

Chapecoense-sc

0.7

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Coritiba

At home
1.2
pts/game
1.1
scored
1.2
conceded
  • Scored in 14 of 21
  • Clean sheet in 20%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Chapecoense-sc

Away
0.3
pts/game
0.6
scored
1.7
conceded
  • Scored in 12 of 20
  • Clean sheet in 0%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Coritiba · Recent form

  • L0-1Cruzeiro
  • D0-0RB Bragantino
  • L1-3Palmeiras
  • L0-3Flamengo
  • W3-2Bahia

Chapecoense-sc · Recent form

  • L0-2Cruzeiro
  • D0-0Cruzeiro
  • D2-2Santos
  • L0-4Flamengo
  • L0-2Bahia

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?

Golazo's model makes Coritiba the more likely winner at 58%, with the draw at 24%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 54%, and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

More Brasileirão matches

All Brasileirão fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.