Match preview
Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction
Gremio
17 in the table · 22 pts from 20
Sao Paulo
12 in the table · 26 pts from 20
Sat, Aug 8, 03:00 PM
Porto Alegre
The short answer
Golazo's model rates this close to even: Gremio 33%, the draw 31%, Sao Paulo 36%. It projects 2.2 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 47%.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Gremio win
33%
Draw
31%
Sao Paulo win
36%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.2
Total goals 2.2
Both teams score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Over 1.5 goals
67%
Gremio clean sheet
31%
Sao Paulo clean sheet
34%
What stands out
match.offsides 2.7
23% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Gremio 1.3 + Sao Paulo 1.4 per game
Total goals 2.2
17% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Gremio 1.2 scored / 1.5 conceded · Sao Paulo 1.2 / 1.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
36%
Shots
Tetê
Gremio
2
Gremio · on target
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
1.1
Sao Paulo · on target
Luciano
Sao Paulo
0.9
Gremio · Recent form
- D1-1Mirassol
- L0-1Bolívar
- D1-1Fluminense
- L2-3Bolívar
- L1-2Mirassol
Sao Paulo · Recent form
- D1-1Flamengo
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense
- L0-1Remo
- W2-0Boston River
- D1-1Botafogo
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Gremio 33%, the draw 31%, Sao Paulo 36%. No side is a clear favourite.
What is the most likely score in Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 47%, and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.