Match preview
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama prediction
Bahia
5 in the table · 32 pts from 21
Vasco DA Gama
18 in the table · 21 pts from 20
Sun, Aug 9, 03:00 PM
Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Bahia the more likely winner at 44%, against 22% for Vasco DA Gama and 34% for the draw. It projects 1.9 goals in total, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%, and puts both teams scoring at 37%.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Bahia win
44%
Draw
34%
Vasco DA Gama win
22%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.1 – 0.7
Total goals 1.9
Both teams score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
29%
Over 1.5 goals
57%
Bahia clean sheet
48%
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
32%
What stands out
Total goals 1.9
31% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Bahia 1.3 scored / 1.0 conceded · Vasco DA Gama 1.0 / 1.0 per game
Fouls 24.9
19% above a typical match · League average 21
Bahia 12.1 + Vasco DA Gama 12.8 per game
match.offsides 3
15% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Bahia 1.7 + Vasco DA Gama 1.3 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Philippe Coutinho
Vasco DA Gama
21%
Shots
C. Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
2.6
Bahia · on target
C. Olivera
Bahia
0.9
Vasco DA Gama · on target
Philippe Coutinho
Vasco DA Gama
1.3
Bahia · Recent form
- D0-0Fluminense
- D1-1Corinthians
- D1-1Atletico-MG
- W2-0Chapecoense-sc
- L0-2Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama · Recent form
- D0-0Fluminense
- W1-0Independiente Medellin
- D1-1Mirassol
- D2-2Independiente Medellin
- L0-1Vitoria
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Golazo's model makes Bahia the more likely winner at 44%, with the draw at 34%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, at 17%. The model projects 1.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 37%, and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.