Match preview
FC Porto vs Arouca prediction
FC Porto
Arouca
FC Porto
2 in the table · 6 pts from 2
Arouca
1 in the table · 6 pts from 2
Sun, Aug 23, 03:30 PM
Porto
The short answer
Golazo's model makes FC Porto the more likely winner at 51%, against 20% for Arouca and 29% for the draw. It projects 2.3 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 44%. Behind that: FC Porto have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Arouca in 2 of 2.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
FC Porto win
51%
Draw
29%
Arouca win
20%
What our model expects
FC PortoPer gameAroucaBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.5 – 0.8
Total goals 2.3
Both teams score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Over 1.5 goals
68%
FC Porto clean sheet
44%
Arouca clean sheet
23%
What stands out
Total goals 2.3
15% below a typical match · League average 2.7
FC Porto 1.5 scored / 0.9 conceded · Arouca 1.4 / 1.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Barbero
Arouca
15%
Shots
Barbero
Arouca
1.3
Arouca · on target
Barbero
Arouca
0.6
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
FC Porto
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Arouca
Away- 3
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
FC Porto · Recent form
- W2-0Rio Ave
- W2-0Alverca
- W1-0Torreense
- W2-1Aston Villa
- L0-1GIL Vicente
Arouca · Recent form
- W4-0Moreirense
- W1-0Vitória SC
- W2-0Lusitânia Lourosa
- L0-3Santa Clara
- D0-0Famalicao
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win FC Porto vs Arouca?
Golazo's model makes FC Porto the more likely winner at 51%, with the draw at 29%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in FC Porto vs Arouca?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 14%. The model projects 2.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Arouca?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 44%, and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
More Primeira Liga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.