Match preview
Sporting CP vs Alverca prediction
Sporting CP
Alverca
Sporting CP
7 in the table · 4 pts from 2
Alverca
14 in the table · 1 pts from 2
Sat, Aug 22, 03:30 PM
Lisbon
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Sporting CP the more likely winner at 70%, against 10% for Alverca and 19% for the draw. It projects 3.1 goals in total, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 50%. Behind that: Sporting CP have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Alverca in 1 of 2.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Sporting CP win
70%
Draw
19%
Alverca win
10%
What our model expects
Sporting CPPer gameAlvercaBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2.3 – 0.8
Total goals 3.1
Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Over 1.5 goals
82%
Sporting CP clean sheet
45%
Alverca clean sheet
10%
What stands out
Total goals 3.1
14% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Sporting CP 2.4 scored / 1.0 conceded · Alverca 1.2 / 1.2 per game
Cards 5.2
15% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Sporting CP 2.5 + Alverca 2.7 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Vivaldo Semedo
Alverca
13%
Shots
Ian Luccas
Alverca
1.5
Alverca · on target
Vivaldo Semedo
Alverca
0.6
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Sporting CP
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 3
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Alverca
Away- 0
- pts/game
- 0
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 1 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Sporting CP · Recent form
- W3-2Vitória SC
- D2-2Estrela
- W4-1Nottingham Forest
- W2-0Monaco
- W7-0Strasbourg
Alverca · Recent form
- D2-2Estrela
- L0-2FC Porto
- W1-0Sporting CP B
- L0-1Mafra
- W2-0Estoril
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Sporting CP vs Alverca?
Golazo's model makes Sporting CP the more likely winner at 70%, with the draw at 19%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Sporting CP vs Alverca?
The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, at 12%. The model projects 3.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Alverca?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 50%, and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
More Primeira Liga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.