Match preview
Arouca vs Moreirense prediction
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca
4 in the table · 3 pts from 1
Moreirense
13 in the table · 1 pts from 1
Sun, Aug 16, 01:00 PM
Arouca
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Arouca the more likely winner at 55%, against 19% for Moreirense and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.7 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 52%. Behind that: Arouca have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, Moreirense in 1 of 1.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Arouca win
55%
Draw
26%
Moreirense win
19%
What our model expects
AroucaPer gameMoreirenseBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 0.9
Total goals 2.7
Both teams score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Arouca clean sheet
39%
Moreirense clean sheet
17%
What stands out
Cards 5.5
22% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Arouca 3.0 + Moreirense 2.5 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Arouca
At home- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Moreirense
Away- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Arouca · Recent form
- W1-0Vitória SC
- W2-0Lusitânia Lourosa
- L0-3Santa Clara
- D0-0Famalicao
- D0-0Feirense
Moreirense · Recent form
- D2-2SC Braga
- W2-0Amarante
- D2-2GIL Vicente
- L1-2Santa Clara
- D2-2AVS
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Arouca vs Moreirense?
Golazo's model makes Arouca the more likely winner at 55%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Arouca vs Moreirense?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.7 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Moreirense?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 52%, and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
More Primeira Liga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.