Match preview
D. La Serena vs O'Higgins: projection vs result
D. La Serena
13 in the table · 19 pts from 17
O'Higgins
9 in the table · 23 pts from 17
1–2
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes D. La Serena the more likely winner at 43%, against 31% for O'Higgins and 27% for the draw. It projects 3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 60%. Behind that: D. La Serena have scored in 13 of 17 league games this season, O'Higgins in 11 of 17. It finished D. La Serena 1–2 O'Higgins.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
D. La Serena win
43%
Draw
27%
O'Higgins win
31%
What we said, and what happened
3 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 3Actual 3Called
- Both teams scoreProjected 60%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 57%Actual YesCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.3
Total goals 3
Both teams score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Over 1.5 goals
81%
D. La Serena clean sheet
26%
O'Higgins clean sheet
20%
What stands out
match.offsides 3
13% below a typical match · League average 3.5
D. La Serena 1.7 + O'Higgins 1.4 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
T. Vecino
O'Higgins
30%
Shots
A. Castillo
O'Higgins
2.2
D. La Serena · on target
F. Chamorro
D. La Serena
1
O'Higgins · on target
T. Vecino
O'Higgins
1.1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
D. La Serena
At home- 1.33
- pts/game
- 1.56
- scored
- 1.22
- conceded
- Scored in 13 of 17
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
O'Higgins
Away- 1.22
- pts/game
- 1.44
- scored
- 1.78
- conceded
- Scored in 11 of 17
- Clean sheet in 22%
When their goals arrive
D. La Serena · Recent form
- L1-2O'Higgins
- D3-3U. Catolica
- L0-1Cobreloa
- L2-4Antofagasta
- W1-0Cobresal
O'Higgins · Recent form
- W2-1D. La Serena
- W1-0Boca Juniors
- L0-2Concepción
- L0-1Boca Juniors
- W1-0Nublense
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win D. La Serena vs O'Higgins?
Golazo's model makes D. La Serena the more likely winner at 43%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in D. La Serena vs O'Higgins?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs O'Higgins?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 60%, and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
More Primera División (Chile) matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.