Match preview

D. La Serena vs O'Higgins: projection vs result

D. La Serena

13 in the table · 19 pts from 17

O'Higgins

9 in the table · 23 pts from 17

12

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes D. La Serena the more likely winner at 43%, against 31% for O'Higgins and 27% for the draw. It projects 3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 60%. Behind that: D. La Serena have scored in 13 of 17 league games this season, O'Higgins in 11 of 17. It finished D. La Serena 1–2 O'Higgins.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

D. La Serena win

43%

Draw

27%

O'Higgins win

31%

Most likely scorelines1112%219%128%

What we said, and what happened

3 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 3Actual 3Called
  • Both teams scoreProjected 60%Actual YesCalled
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 57%Actual YesCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.6 1.3

Total goals 3

Both teams score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

Over 1.5 goals

81%

D. La Serena clean sheet

26%

O'Higgins clean sheet

20%

What stands out

  • match.offsides 3

    13% below a typical match · League average 3.5

    D. La Serena 1.7 + O'Higgins 1.4 per game

Corners

League average 5

D. La Serena5.8
O'Higgins4.8

Cards

League average 2.25

D. La Serena2.2
O'Higgins2.3

Shots

League average 12.5

D. La Serena14.5
O'Higgins11.6

Possession

D. La Serena49
O'Higgins51

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

T. Vecino

O'Higgins

30%

Shots

A. Castillo

O'Higgins

2.2

D. La Serena · on target

F. Chamorro

D. La Serena

1

O'Higgins · on target

T. Vecino

O'Higgins

1.1

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

D. La Serena

At home
1.33
pts/game
1.56
scored
1.22
conceded
  • Scored in 13 of 17
  • Clean sheet in 33%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

O'Higgins

Away
1.22
pts/game
1.44
scored
1.78
conceded
  • Scored in 11 of 17
  • Clean sheet in 22%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

D. La Serena · Recent form

  • L1-2O'Higgins
  • D3-3U. Catolica
  • L0-1Cobreloa
  • L2-4Antofagasta
  • W1-0Cobresal

O'Higgins · Recent form

  • W2-1D. La Serena
  • W1-0Boca Juniors
  • L0-2Concepción
  • L0-1Boca Juniors
  • W1-0Nublense

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win D. La Serena vs O'Higgins?

Golazo's model makes D. La Serena the more likely winner at 43%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in D. La Serena vs O'Higgins?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs O'Higgins?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 60%, and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

More Primera División (Chile) matches

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.