Match preview
Bohemians vs Derry City prediction
Bohemians
Derry City
Bohemians
3 in the table · 44 pts from 27
Derry City
6 in the table · 33 pts from 27
Fri, Aug 21, 02:45 PM
Dalymount Park, Dublin
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Bohemians the more likely winner at 46%, against 25% for Derry City and 29% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 51%. Behind that: Bohemians have scored in 24 of 27 league games this season, Derry City in 20 of 27.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Bohemians win
46%
Draw
29%
Derry City win
25%
What our model expects
BohemiansPer gameDerry CityNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.5 – 1
Total goals 2.5
Both teams score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Bohemians clean sheet
35%
Derry City clean sheet
23%
What stands out
Offsides 2.6
27% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Bohemians 1.4 + Derry City 1.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
C. Whelan
Bohemians
25%
Shots
Zane Myers
Bohemians
1.7
Bohemians · on target
C. Whelan
Bohemians
0.9
Derry City · on target
D. Akinyemi
Derry City
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Bohemians
At home- 1.38
- pts/game
- 1.31
- scored
- 1.15
- conceded
- Scored in 24 of 27
- Clean sheet in 23%
When their goals arrive
Derry City
Away- 0.77
- pts/game
- 0.92
- scored
- 1.23
- conceded
- Scored in 20 of 27
- Clean sheet in 15%
When their goals arrive
Bohemians · Recent form
- W4-0Longford Town
- L2-3FC Midtjylland
- L1-3Waterford
- L0-2FC Midtjylland
- D1-1Galway United
Derry City · Recent form
- W2-1UCD
- W2-0Sligo Rovers
- D1-1St Patrick's Athl.
- L0-1HNK Rijeka
- L0-1HNK Rijeka
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Golazo's model makes Bohemians the more likely winner at 46%, with the draw at 29%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 51%, and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
More League of Ireland matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.