Match preview

Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction

Benfica

Heart Of Midlothian

Thu, Aug 6, 03:00 PM

Lisbon

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Benfica the more likely winner at 77%, against 8% for Heart Of Midlothian and 15% for the draw. It projects 3.7 goals in total, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%, and puts both teams scoring at 55%.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Benfica win

77%

Draw

15%

Heart Of Midlothian win

8%

Most likely scorelines2010%309%219%

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

2.8 0.9

Total goals 3.7

Both teams score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

71%

Over 1.5 goals

89%

Benfica clean sheet

42%

Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet

6%

What stands out

  • Total goals 3.7

    37% above a typical match · League average 2.7

    Benfica 2.2 scored / 1.1 conceded · Heart Of Midlothian 1.1 / 1.5 per game

  • Cards 3.7

    17% below a typical match · League average 4.5

    Benfica 1.7 + Heart Of Midlothian 2.0 per game

Corners

League average 5

Benfica5.4
Heart Of Midlothian5.2

Cards

League average 2.25

Benfica1.7
Heart Of Midlothian2

Shots

League average 12.5

Benfica14.5
Heart Of Midlothian14.3

Possession

Benfica48
Heart Of Midlothian52

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

V. Pavlidis

Benfica

41%

Shots

D. Lukebakio

Benfica

2.2

Benfica · on target

F. Ivanović

Benfica

1.2

Heart Of Midlothian · on target

C. Miller

Heart Of Midlothian

0.6

Benfica · Recent form

  • W5-0FC ST. Gallen
  • W5-1CF Os Belenenses
  • L1-2FC ST. Gallen
  • W2-0Villarreal
  • L1-2Flamengo

Heart Of Midlothian · Recent form

  • L1-2Aberdeen
  • L0-2Sturm Graz
  • W1-0Raith Rovers
  • L0-4Sturm Graz
  • W2-1Rayo Vallecano

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian?

Golazo's model makes Benfica the more likely winner at 77%, with the draw at 15%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian?

The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, at 10%. The model projects 3.7 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Heart Of Midlothian?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 55%, and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.