Match preview

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia: projection vs result

Maccabi Tel Aviv

36 in the table · 1 pts from 8

CSKA Sofia

03

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Maccabi Tel Aviv the more likely winner at 46%, against 27% for CSKA Sofia and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 58%. Behind that: Maccabi Tel Aviv have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, CSKA Sofia in 3 of 4. It finished Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–3 CSKA Sofia.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Maccabi Tel Aviv win

46%

Draw

27%

CSKA Sofia win

27%

Most likely scorelines1113%219%108%

What we said, and what happened

2 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.9Actual 3Called
  • Both teams scoreProjected 58%Actual NoMissed
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 54%Actual YesCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.6 1.2

Total goals 2.9

Both teams score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

Over 1.5 goals

79%

Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet

30%

CSKA Sofia clean sheet

19%

What stands out

  • Fouls 24.4

    16% above a typical match · League average 21

    Maccabi Tel Aviv 12.6 + CSKA Sofia 11.8 per game

  • match.offsides 3

    14% below a typical match · League average 3.5

    Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.6 + CSKA Sofia 1.4 per game

Corners

League average 5

Maccabi Tel Aviv4.7
CSKA Sofia4.1

Cards

League average 2.25

Maccabi Tel Aviv1.9
CSKA Sofia3

Possession

Maccabi Tel Aviv50
CSKA Sofia50

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

S. Godoy

CSKA Sofia

33%

Shots

S. Godoy

CSKA Sofia

2.5

Maccabi Tel Aviv · on target

Dor Peretz

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1

CSKA Sofia · on target

S. Godoy

CSKA Sofia

1.3

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Maccabi Tel Aviv

At home
3
pts/game
1
scored
0
conceded
  • Scored in 2 of 2
  • Clean sheet in 100%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

CSKA Sofia

Away
2
pts/game
1
scored
0.5
conceded
  • Scored in 3 of 4
  • Clean sheet in 50%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Maccabi Tel Aviv · Recent form

  • L0-3CSKA Sofia
  • W1-0Sheriff Tiraspol
  • W5-0Sheriff Tiraspol
  • W3-1Hapoel Beer Sheva
  • L0-1IMT Novi Beograd

CSKA Sofia · Recent form

  • W3-0Maccabi Tel Aviv
  • W2-1Dunav Ruse
  • D0-0Qarabag
  • W3-2Botev Plovdiv
  • D0-0Qarabag

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?

Golazo's model makes Maccabi Tel Aviv the more likely winner at 46%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 58%, and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.