Match preview
Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka prediction
Avispa Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
Cerezo Osaka
Sat, Aug 15, 06:00 AM
Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Cerezo Osaka the more likely winner at 45%, against 26% for Avispa Fukuoka and 29% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 52%. Behind that: Avispa Fukuoka have scored in 15 of 20 league games this season, Cerezo Osaka in 17 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Avispa Fukuoka win
26%
Draw
29%
Cerezo Osaka win
45%
What our model expects
Avispa FukuokaPer gameCerezo OsakaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.5
Total goals 2.5
Both teams score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet
23%
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet
34%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
29%
Shots
M. Shibayama
Cerezo Osaka
1.7
Avispa Fukuoka · on target
S. Usui
Avispa Fukuoka
0.8
Cerezo Osaka · on target
S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Avispa Fukuoka
At home- 1.6
- pts/game
- 1.5
- scored
- 1.8
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 20
- Clean sheet in 10%
When their goals arrive
Cerezo Osaka
Away- 1.8
- pts/game
- 1.4
- scored
- 1.2
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 20
- Clean sheet in 30%
When their goals arrive
Avispa Fukuoka · Recent form
- L0-1Vissel Kobe
- W3-2Osaka
- L1-2Kitakyushu
- W2-1JEF United Chiba
- D2-2JEF United Chiba
Cerezo Osaka · Recent form
- W2-1Fagiano Okayama
- W1-0Borussia Dortmund
- W1-0Tochigi City
- W3-1FC Tokyo
- D2-2FC Tokyo
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?
Golazo's model makes Cerezo Osaka the more likely winner at 45%, with the draw at 29%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 52%, and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
More J1 League matches
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