Match preview

AC Oulu vs Ilves: projection vs result

AC Oulu

3 in the table · 30 pts from 18

Ilves

9 in the table · 22 pts from 18

10

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes AC Oulu the more likely winner at 45%, against 29% for Ilves and 26% for the draw. It projects 3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 61%. Behind that: AC Oulu have scored in 14 of 18 league games this season, Ilves in 16 of 18. It finished AC Oulu 1–0 Ilves.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

AC Oulu win

45%

Draw

26%

Ilves win

29%

Most likely scorelines1112%219%107%

What we said, and what happened

0 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 3Actual 1Missed
  • Both teams scoreProjected 61%Actual NoMissed
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 58%Actual NoMissed

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.7 1.3

Total goals 3

Both teams score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Over 1.5 goals

81%

AC Oulu clean sheet

27%

Ilves clean sheet

18%

Corners

League average 5

AC Oulu5.4
Ilves4.2

Cards

League average 2.25

AC Oulu2.3
Ilves2

Shots

League average 12.5

AC Oulu12.8
Ilves

Possession

AC Oulu51
Ilves49

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

J. Kanga

Ilves

25%

Shots

R. Karjalainen

AC Oulu

1.9

AC Oulu · on target

J. Körkkö

AC Oulu

0.9

Ilves · on target

J. Kanga

Ilves

0.9

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

AC Oulu

At home
2.38
pts/game
1.25
scored
0.63
conceded
  • Scored in 14 of 18
  • Clean sheet in 50%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Ilves

Away
0.6
pts/game
1.5
scored
2.3
conceded
  • Scored in 16 of 18
  • Clean sheet in 0%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

AC Oulu · Recent form

  • W1-0Ilves
  • D1-1Mariehamn
  • L0-2Gnistan
  • L0-3Turku PS
  • D1-1Lahti

Ilves · Recent form

  • L0-1HNK Rijeka
  • L0-1AC Oulu
  • W1-0Stjarnan
  • W1-0Lahti
  • L0-1Stjarnan

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win AC Oulu vs Ilves?

Golazo's model makes AC Oulu the more likely winner at 45%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 61%, and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

More Veikkausliiga matches

All Veikkausliiga fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.