Match preview
AC Oulu vs Ilves: projection vs result
AC Oulu
3 in the table · 30 pts from 18
Ilves
9 in the table · 22 pts from 18
1–0
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes AC Oulu the more likely winner at 45%, against 29% for Ilves and 26% for the draw. It projects 3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 61%. Behind that: AC Oulu have scored in 14 of 18 league games this season, Ilves in 16 of 18. It finished AC Oulu 1–0 Ilves.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
AC Oulu win
45%
Draw
26%
Ilves win
29%
What we said, and what happened
0 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 3Actual 1Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 61%Actual NoMissed
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 58%Actual NoMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.3
Total goals 3
Both teams score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Over 1.5 goals
81%
AC Oulu clean sheet
27%
Ilves clean sheet
18%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. Kanga
Ilves
25%
Shots
R. Karjalainen
AC Oulu
1.9
AC Oulu · on target
J. Körkkö
AC Oulu
0.9
Ilves · on target
J. Kanga
Ilves
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
AC Oulu
At home- 2.38
- pts/game
- 1.25
- scored
- 0.63
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 18
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
Ilves
Away- 0.6
- pts/game
- 1.5
- scored
- 2.3
- conceded
- Scored in 16 of 18
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
AC Oulu · Recent form
- W1-0Ilves
- D1-1Mariehamn
- L0-2Gnistan
- L0-3Turku PS
- D1-1Lahti
Ilves · Recent form
- L0-1HNK Rijeka
- L0-1AC Oulu
- W1-0Stjarnan
- W1-0Lahti
- L0-1Stjarnan
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Golazo's model makes AC Oulu the more likely winner at 45%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 61%, and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
More Veikkausliiga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.