Match preview

SJK vs HJK Helsinki: projection vs result

SJK

10 in the table · 17 pts from 18

HJK Helsinki

4 in the table · 28 pts from 18

30

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes HJK Helsinki the more likely winner at 38%, against 34% for SJK and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 59%. Behind that: SJK have scored in 12 of 18 league games this season, HJK Helsinki in 13 of 18. It finished SJK 3–0 HJK Helsinki.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

SJK win

34%

Draw

27%

HJK Helsinki win

38%

Most likely scorelines1113%129%218%

What we said, and what happened

2 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.9Actual 3Called
  • Both teams scoreProjected 59%Actual NoMissed
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 55%Actual YesCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.4 1.5

Total goals 2.9

Both teams score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Over 1.5 goals

79%

SJK clean sheet

23%

HJK Helsinki clean sheet

25%

What stands out

  • Corners 8.4

    16% below a typical match · League average 10

    SJK win 4.3 per game, HJK Helsinki concede 4.0

Corners

League average 5

SJK4.5
HJK Helsinki4

Cards

League average 2.25

SJK2.5
HJK Helsinki2

Shots

League average 12.5

SJK11.4
HJK Helsinki12

Possession

SJK49
HJK Helsinki51

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

M. Borchers

HJK Helsinki

19%

Shots

T. Pukki

HJK Helsinki

1.6

SJK · on target

O. Tessilimi

SJK

0.8

HJK Helsinki · on target

M. Borchers

HJK Helsinki

0.9

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

SJK

At home
1.22
pts/game
1.44
scored
1.22
conceded
  • Scored in 12 of 18
  • Clean sheet in 22%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

HJK Helsinki

Away
1.22
pts/game
1.67
scored
1.33
conceded
  • Scored in 13 of 18
  • Clean sheet in 22%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

SJK · Recent form

  • W3-0HJK Helsinki
  • L1-2FF Jaro
  • L0-2KuPS
  • L0-1VPS
  • W3-1Turku PS

HJK Helsinki · Recent form

  • L0-3SJK
  • W3-0Coleraine FC
  • W1-0Turku PS
  • W5-0Coleraine FC
  • W2-1VPS

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win SJK vs HJK Helsinki?

Golazo's model makes HJK Helsinki the more likely winner at 38%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in SJK vs HJK Helsinki?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in SJK vs HJK Helsinki?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 59%, and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

More Veikkausliiga matches

All Veikkausliiga fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.