Match preview
KuPS vs Turku PS prediction
KuPS
1 in the table · 39 pts from 18
Turku PS
8 in the table · 25 pts from 18
Sun, Aug 9, 08:00 AM
Vare Areena, Kuopio
The short answer
Golazo's model makes KuPS the more likely winner at 54%, against 19% for Turku PS and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 49%. Behind that: KuPS have scored in 16 of 18 league games this season, Turku PS in 14 of 18.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
KuPS win
54%
Draw
27%
Turku PS win
19%
What our model expects
No book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 0.9
Total goals 2.5
Both teams score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Over 1.5 goals
73%
KuPS clean sheet
41%
Turku PS clean sheet
19%
What stands out
Cards 3.1
31% below a typical match · League average 4.5
KuPS 1.8 + Turku PS 1.3 per game
Corners 8
20% below a typical match · League average 10
KuPS win 3.5 per game, Turku PS concede 4.5
Fouls 18.3
13% below a typical match · League average 21
KuPS 9.8 + Turku PS 8.5 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. Moreno
KuPS
37%
Shots
J. Moreno
KuPS
2.3
KuPS · on target
J. Moreno
KuPS
1.3
Turku PS · on target
A. Muzaci
Turku PS
0.6
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
KuPS
At home- 2.33
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 16 of 18
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Turku PS
Away- 0.38
- pts/game
- 0.63
- scored
- 1.38
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 18
- Clean sheet in 13%
When their goals arrive
KuPS · Recent form
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova
- W1-0Gnistan
- L0-2Sabah FA
- W3-1VPS
- L0-1Sabah FA
Turku PS · Recent form
- W3-0Mariehamn
- L0-1HJK Helsinki
- L1-3Ilves
- W3-0AC Oulu
- L1-3SJK
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win KuPS vs Turku PS?
Golazo's model makes KuPS the more likely winner at 54%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in KuPS vs Turku PS?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Turku PS?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 49%, and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
More Veikkausliiga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.