Match preview
ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: projection vs result
ST Johnstone
2 in the table · 3 pts from 1
Kilmarnock
8 in the table · 0 pts from 1
4–3
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes ST Johnstone the more likely winner at 65%, against 14% for Kilmarnock and 22% for the draw. It projects 3 goals in total, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%, and puts both teams scoring at 52%. Behind that: ST Johnstone have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, Kilmarnock in 1 of 1. It finished ST Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
ST Johnstone win
65%
Draw
22%
Kilmarnock win
14%
What we said, and what happened
2 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 3Actual 7Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 52%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 57%Actual YesCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2.1 – 0.9
Total goals 3
Both teams score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Over 1.5 goals
81%
ST Johnstone clean sheet
41%
Kilmarnock clean sheet
12%
What stands out
Cards 3.6
21% below a typical match · League average 4.5
ST Johnstone 1.7 + Kilmarnock 1.9 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
ST Johnstone
At home- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Kilmarnock
Away- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
ST Johnstone · Recent form
- W4-3Kilmarnock
- D1-1East Fife
- L0-1Inverness CT
- W3-0Morton
- W2-0Linlithgow Rose
Kilmarnock · Recent form
- L3-4ST Johnstone
- D0-0Peterhead
- W1-0Hamilton Academical
- W1-0Elgin City
- D0-0Raith Rovers
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
Golazo's model makes ST Johnstone the more likely winner at 65%, with the draw at 22%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, at 11%. The model projects 3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 52%, and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
More Scottish Premiership matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.