Match preview
Nublense vs Union La Calera prediction
Nublense
Union La Calera
Nublense
6 in the table · 26 pts from 17
Union La Calera
16 in the table · 13 pts from 18
Sun, Aug 16, 12:30 PM
Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Chillan
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Nublense the more likely winner at 50%, against 22% for Union La Calera and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 51%. Behind that: Nublense have scored in 15 of 17 league games this season, Union La Calera in 12 of 18.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Nublense win
50%
Draw
28%
Union La Calera win
22%
What our model expects
NublensePer gameUnion La CaleraNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 1
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Nublense clean sheet
37%
Union La Calera clean sheet
20%
What stands out
Fouls 23.8
13% above a typical match · League average 21
Nublense 13.3 + Union La Calera 10.4 per game
Offsides 4
14% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Nublense 2.2 + Union La Calera 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
S. Sáez
Union La Calera
21%
Shots
I. Jeraldino
Nublense
1.8
Nublense · on target
I. Jeraldino
Nublense
1
Union La Calera · on target
F. Pozzo
Union La Calera
0.8
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Nublense
At home- 1.44
- pts/game
- 1.33
- scored
- 1.22
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 17
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Union La Calera
Away- 0.88
- pts/game
- 0.5
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 12 of 18
- Clean sheet in 25%
When their goals arrive
Nublense · Recent form
- D2-2A. Italiano
- W1-0Rangers de Talca
- W2-0Palestino
- L0-1O'Higgins
- W2-1O'Higgins
Union La Calera · Recent form
- L1-2Colo Colo
- W4-0Santiago Wanderers
- L0-4Cobresal
- D1-1Everton de Vina
- W1-0Coquimbo Unido
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Golazo's model makes Nublense the more likely winner at 50%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 51%, and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
More Primera División (Chile) matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.