Match preview

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego: projection vs result

Minnesota United FC

10 in the table · 24 pts from 18

San Diego

13 in the table · 21 pts from 18

11

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes San Diego the more likely winner at 42%, against 30% for Minnesota United FC and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.7 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 56%. It finished Minnesota United FC 1–1 San Diego.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Minnesota United FC win

30%

Draw

28%

San Diego win

42%

Most likely scorelines1113%129%019%

What we said, and what happened

1 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.7Actual 2Missed
  • Both teams scoreProjected 56%Actual YesCalled
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 51%Actual NoMissed

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.2 1.5

Total goals 2.7

Both teams score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

Minnesota United FC clean sheet

23%

San Diego clean sheet

29%

What stands out

  • Cards 3.8

    16% below a typical match · League average 4.5

    Minnesota United FC 1.9 + San Diego 1.9 per game

  • match.offsides 4

    15% above a typical match · League average 3.5

    Minnesota United FC 2.1 + San Diego 1.9 per game

  • Fouls 18.4

    12% below a typical match · League average 21

    Minnesota United FC 9.1 + San Diego 9.3 per game

Corners

League average 5

Minnesota United FC5.7
San Diego4.2

Cards

League average 2.25

Minnesota United FC1.9
San Diego1.9

Shots

League average 12.5

Minnesota United FC13.1
San Diego13.3

Possession

Minnesota United FC47
San Diego53

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

M. Ingvartsen

San Diego

29%

Shots

M. Ingvartsen

San Diego

2

Minnesota United FC · on target

M.Dieng

Minnesota United FC

1

San Diego · on target

A. Dreyer

San Diego

1.2

Minnesota United FC · Recent form

  • L1-2FC Juarez
  • D1-1San Diego
  • D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps
  • L1-2Sporting Kansas City
  • D1-1Real Salt Lake

San Diego · Recent form

  • D1-1Minnesota United FC
  • W1-0FC Dallas
  • L0-1Colorado Rapids
  • L2-4Vancouver Whitecaps
  • D3-3FC Cincinnati

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Minnesota United FC vs San Diego?

Golazo's model makes San Diego the more likely winner at 42%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Minnesota United FC vs San Diego?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.7 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs San Diego?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 56%, and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.