Match preview
Minnesota United FC vs San Diego: projection vs result
Minnesota United FC
10 in the table · 24 pts from 18
San Diego
13 in the table · 21 pts from 18
1–1
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes San Diego the more likely winner at 42%, against 30% for Minnesota United FC and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.7 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 56%. It finished Minnesota United FC 1–1 San Diego.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Minnesota United FC win
30%
Draw
28%
San Diego win
42%
What we said, and what happened
1 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.7Actual 2Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 56%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 51%Actual NoMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.5
Total goals 2.7
Both teams score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Minnesota United FC clean sheet
23%
San Diego clean sheet
29%
What stands out
Cards 3.8
16% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Minnesota United FC 1.9 + San Diego 1.9 per game
match.offsides 4
15% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Minnesota United FC 2.1 + San Diego 1.9 per game
Fouls 18.4
12% below a typical match · League average 21
Minnesota United FC 9.1 + San Diego 9.3 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
M. Ingvartsen
San Diego
29%
Shots
M. Ingvartsen
San Diego
2
Minnesota United FC · on target
M.Dieng
Minnesota United FC
1
San Diego · on target
A. Dreyer
San Diego
1.2
Minnesota United FC · Recent form
- L1-2FC Juarez
- D1-1San Diego
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps
- L1-2Sporting Kansas City
- D1-1Real Salt Lake
San Diego · Recent form
- D1-1Minnesota United FC
- W1-0FC Dallas
- L0-1Colorado Rapids
- L2-4Vancouver Whitecaps
- D3-3FC Cincinnati
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Minnesota United FC vs San Diego?
Golazo's model makes San Diego the more likely winner at 42%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Minnesota United FC vs San Diego?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.7 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs San Diego?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 56%, and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
More MLS matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.