Match preview

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven prediction

Excelsior
v
PSV Eindhoven
531830
ExcelsiorDrawPSV Eindhoven
Goals expectedBoth teams score86%Over 2.5 goals90%Total goals5.3
Why this pick +Our own read — no book has priced it

Excelsior

1 in the table · 3 pts from 1

PSV Eindhoven

10 in the table · 1 pts from 1

Sat, Aug 15, 02:00 PM

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Excelsior the more likely winner at 53%, against 30% for PSV Eindhoven and 18% for the draw. It projects 5.3 goals in total, with 3-2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%, and puts both teams scoring at 86%. Behind that: Excelsior have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, PSV Eindhoven in 1 of 1.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Excelsior win

53%

Draw

18%

PSV Eindhoven win

30%

Most likely scorelines3–26%2–26%3–15%

What our model expects

ExcelsiorPer gamePSV Eindhoven
WWWWWLast 5DLWLW
3.0Expected goals2.3
49Possession51
14.3Shots13.9
5.0Corners5.1
0.0Scored0.0
0.0Conceded0.0
0.00Points per game0.00
0.0Cards0.0

Built from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

3 – 2.3

Total goals 5.3

Both teams score

86%

Over 2.5 goals

90%

Over 1.5 goals

97%

Excelsior clean sheet

10%

PSV Eindhoven clean sheet

5%

What stands out

  • Total goals 5.3

    98% above a typical match · League average 2.7

    Excelsior 2.1 scored / 1.4 conceded · PSV Eindhoven 2.5 / 1.8 per game

Corners

League average 5

Excelsior5
PSV Eindhoven5.1

Shots

League average 12.5

Excelsior14.3
PSV Eindhoven13.9

Possession

Excelsior49
PSV Eindhoven51

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Excelsior

At home
  • Scored in 1 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

PSV Eindhoven

Away
  • Scored in 1 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Excelsior · Recent form

  • W4-0Cambuur
  • W5-1De Graafschap
  • W5-3Heracles
  • W3-1NAC Breda
  • W2-0Dordrecht

PSV Eindhoven · Recent form

  • D2-2Fortuna Sittard
  • L0-4AZ Alkmaar
  • W3-0FC Eindhoven
  • L1-3Villarreal
  • W7-3Union St. Gilloise

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

See the full recordHow it works

Common questions

Who will win Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?

Golazo's model makes Excelsior the more likely winner at 53%, with the draw at 18%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?

The single most likely scoreline is 3-2, at 6%. The model projects 5.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 86%, and over 2.5 goals at 90%.

More Eredivisie matches

All Eredivisie fixtures and the table →

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.