Match preview
Alverca vs Estrela prediction
Alverca
Estrela
Alverca
18 in the table · 0 pts from 1
Estrela
9 in the table · 1 pts from 1
Sat, Aug 15, 10:30 AM
FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Alverca the more likely winner at 37%, against 32% for Estrela and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 47%. Behind that: Alverca have scored in 0 of 1 league games this season, Estrela in 1 of 1.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Alverca win
37%
Draw
31%
Estrela win
32%
What our model expects
AlvercaPer gameEstrelaBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.1
Total goals 2.3
Both teams score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Over 1.5 goals
67%
Alverca clean sheet
34%
Estrela clean sheet
31%
What stands out
Total goals 2.3
16% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Alverca 1.1 scored / 1.1 conceded · Estrela 1.4 / 1.3 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Alverca
At home- Scored in 0 of 1
When their goals arrive
Estrela
Away- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Alverca · Recent form
No finished games on record yet.
Estrela · Recent form
- D2-2Sporting CP
- W4-2Al-Nassr
- W1-0Lusitano Évora 1911
- D1-1Portimonense
- W2-0Nacional
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Alverca vs Estrela?
Golazo's model makes Alverca the more likely winner at 37%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Alverca vs Estrela?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Estrela?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 47%, and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
More Primeira Liga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.