Match preview
Maritimo vs Casa Pia prediction
Maritimo
Casa Pia
16 in the table · 30 pts from 34
Sat, Aug 8, 10:30 AM
Funchal
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Maritimo the more likely winner at 50%, against 19% for Casa Pia and 31% for the draw. It projects 2 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%, and puts both teams scoring at 38%.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Maritimo win
50%
Draw
31%
Casa Pia win
19%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.7
Total goals 2
Both teams score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Over 1.5 goals
60%
Maritimo clean sheet
50%
Casa Pia clean sheet
27%
What stands out
Total goals 2
26% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Maritimo 1.2 scored / 1.1 conceded · Casa Pia 0.9 / 1.3 per game
Shots
League average 12.5
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Adrián Butzke
Maritimo
33%
Shots
Adrián Butzke
Maritimo
2.5
Maritimo · on target
Adrián Butzke
Maritimo
1.2
Casa Pia · on target
D. Livramento
Casa Pia
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Casa Pia
Away- 0.89
- pts/game
- 0.72
- scored
- 1.72
- conceded
- Scored in 20 of 36
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Maritimo · Recent form
- D1-1Estrela Calheta
- D0-0Machico
- W2-0Camacha
- L1-5Leixoes
- W2-0AVS
Casa Pia · Recent form
- L2-6Leixoes
- L0-1Benfica B
- W2-1Estrela
- W2-0Torreense
- D0-0Torreense
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Golazo's model makes Maritimo the more likely winner at 50%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 17%. The model projects 2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 38%, and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
More Primeira Liga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.