Match preview
Moreirense vs SC Braga prediction
Moreirense
7 in the table · 43 pts from 34
SC Braga
4 in the table · 59 pts from 34
Sun, Aug 9, 03:30 PM
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
The short answer
Golazo's model makes SC Braga the more likely winner at 55%, against 19% for Moreirense and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 51%. Behind that: Moreirense have scored in 23 of 34 league games this season, SC Braga in 31 of 34.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Moreirense win
19%
Draw
26%
SC Braga win
55%
What our model expects
Anchored to the de-vigged consensus of 46 bookmakers, then expanded into the full picture they don't publish: every scoreline, both teams to score, clean sheets. We tested our own goal model against the market over 1,420 matches and the market won, so this starts from the sharper number. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
0.9 – 1.7
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Moreirense clean sheet
18%
SC Braga clean sheet
39%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Guilherme Schettine
Moreirense
34%
Shots
R. Zalazar
SC Braga
2
Moreirense · on target
Guilherme Schettine
Moreirense
1.1
SC Braga · on target
R. Zalazar
SC Braga
1.1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Moreirense
At home- 1.59
- pts/game
- 1.18
- scored
- 1.24
- conceded
- Scored in 23 of 34
- Clean sheet in 29%
When their goals arrive
SC Braga
Away- 1.71
- pts/game
- 1.76
- scored
- 1.06
- conceded
- Scored in 31 of 34
- Clean sheet in 35%
When their goals arrive
Moreirense · Recent form
- W2-0Amarante
- D2-2GIL Vicente
- L1-2Santa Clara
- D2-2AVS
- D0-0AVS
SC Braga · Recent form
- W1-0Dinamo Minsk
- W4-0Železničar Pančevo
- W1-0Železničar Pančevo
- D2-2Celta Vigo
- W5-0Vizela
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Moreirense vs SC Braga?
Golazo's model makes SC Braga the more likely winner at 55%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Moreirense vs SC Braga?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs SC Braga?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 51%, and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
More Primeira Liga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.