Match preview
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos prediction
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
18 in the table · 22 pts from 21
Santos
17 in the table · 22 pts from 21
Sun, Aug 16, 03:00 PM
Rio de Janeiro
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Vasco DA Gama the more likely winner at 41%, against 32% for Santos and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 60%. Behind that: Vasco DA Gama have scored in 15 of 21 league games this season, Santos in 18 of 21.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Vasco DA Gama win
41%
Draw
27%
Santos win
32%
What our model expects
Vasco DA GamaPer gameSantosNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.4
Total goals 2.9
Both teams score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Over 1.5 goals
80%
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
26%
Santos clean sheet
21%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
25%
Shots
C. Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
2.6
Vasco DA Gama · on target
Philippe Coutinho
Vasco DA Gama
1.3
Santos · on target
Neymar
Santos
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Vasco DA Gama
At home- 1.55
- pts/game
- 1.18
- scored
- 1.27
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 21
- Clean sheet in 9%
When their goals arrive
Santos
Away- 0.44
- pts/game
- 1.33
- scored
- 2.11
- conceded
- Scored in 18 of 21
- Clean sheet in 11%
When their goals arrive
Vasco DA Gama · Recent form
- D0-0Bahia
- W3-1Fluminense
- D0-0Fluminense
- W1-0Independiente Medellin
- D1-1Mirassol
Santos · Recent form
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense
- W1-0Remo
- D0-0Remo
- W4-2UCV
- D2-2Chapecoense-sc
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Golazo's model makes Vasco DA Gama the more likely winner at 41%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 60%, and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.