Match preview

Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: projection vs result

Molde

5 in the table · 24 pts from 15

Sarpsborg 08 FF

7 in the table · 22 pts from 15

33

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model rates this close to even: Molde 39%, the draw 24%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%. It projects 3.5 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%, and puts both teams scoring at 70%. It finished Molde 3–3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Molde win

39%

Draw

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF win

37%

Most likely scorelines1110%218%128%

What we said, and what happened

2 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 3.5Actual 6Missed
  • Both teams scoreProjected 70%Actual YesCalled
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 69%Actual YesCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.8 1.7

Total goals 3.5

Both teams score

70%

Over 2.5 goals

69%

Over 1.5 goals

88%

Molde clean sheet

18%

Sarpsborg 08 FF clean sheet

17%

What stands out

  • Total goals 3.5

    31% above a typical match · League average 2.7

    Molde 1.7 scored / 2.0 conceded · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.3 / 1.3 per game

  • match.offsides 2.9

    18% below a typical match · League average 3.5

    Molde 1.6 + Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.3 per game

Corners

League average 5

Molde5.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF4.2

Cards

League average 2.25

Molde2.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.9

Shots

League average 12.5

Molde15.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF12.1

Possession

Molde54
Sarpsborg 08 FF46

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

E. Breivik

Molde

28%

Shots

J. Abdulai

Molde

2

Molde · on target

Trent Toure Kone Doherty

Molde

1

Sarpsborg 08 FF · on target

D. Karlsbakk

Sarpsborg 08 FF

0.7

Molde · Recent form

  • D3-3Sarpsborg 08 FF
  • W4-2KFUM Oslo
  • L1-2Brann
  • D2-2Aalesund
  • L1-2Rosenborg

Sarpsborg 08 FF · Recent form

  • D3-3Molde
  • W1-0Ham-Kam
  • D0-0Kristiansund BK
  • W1-0Viking
  • L1-3Lillestrom

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?

Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Molde 39%, the draw 24%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%. No side is a clear favourite.

What is the most likely score in Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 10%. The model projects 3.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Molde vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 70%, and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

More Eliteserien matches

All Eliteserien fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.