Match preview
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg prediction
Lillestrom
4 in the table · 25 pts from 15
Rosenborg
10 in the table · 18 pts from 15
Sun, Aug 9, 08:30 AM
Eliteserien
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Lillestrom the more likely winner at 46%, against 25% for Rosenborg and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 52%. Behind that: Lillestrom have scored in 10 of 15 league games this season, Rosenborg in 9 of 15.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Lillestrom win
46%
Draw
28%
Rosenborg win
25%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.1
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Lillestrom clean sheet
34%
Rosenborg clean sheet
22%
What stands out
Cards 3.6
19% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Lillestrom 1.8 + Rosenborg 1.9 per game
match.offsides 2.9
16% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Lillestrom 1.4 + Rosenborg 1.6 per game
Fouls 23.6
13% above a typical match · League average 21
Lillestrom 11.8 + Rosenborg 11.9 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Amin Chiakha
Rosenborg
20%
Shots
K. Arierhi
Lillestrom
1.8
Lillestrom · on target
T. Lehne Olsen
Lillestrom
0.8
Rosenborg · on target
Amin Chiakha
Rosenborg
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Lillestrom
At home- 1.71
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 1.29
- conceded
- Scored in 10 of 15
- Clean sheet in 14%
When their goals arrive
Rosenborg
Away- 0.57
- pts/game
- 0.71
- scored
- 1.71
- conceded
- Scored in 9 of 15
- Clean sheet in 29%
When their goals arrive
Lillestrom · Recent form
- L0-4Bodo/Glimt
- L1-2Viking
- W2-1KFUM Oslo
- W2-0Fredrikstad
- W3-1Sarpsborg 08 FF
Rosenborg · Recent form
- L2-3Brann
- W4-0Fredrikstad
- L0-5Manchester United
- W3-0Start
- W3-0Kristiansund BK
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Golazo's model makes Lillestrom the more likely winner at 46%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 52%, and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
More Eliteserien matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.