Match preview
Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice prediction
Lech Poznan
3 in the table · 4 pts from 2
Piast Gliwice
11 in the table · 3 pts from 2
Sun, Aug 9, 11:30 AM
Stadion Poznan
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Lech Poznan the more likely winner at 69%, against 13% for Piast Gliwice and 18% for the draw. It projects 3.5 goals in total, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%, and puts both teams scoring at 59%. Behind that: Lech Poznan have scored in 1 of 2 league games this season, Piast Gliwice in 1 of 2.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Lech Poznan win
69%
Draw
18%
Piast Gliwice win
13%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2.5 – 1
Total goals 3.5
Both teams score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Over 1.5 goals
87%
Lech Poznan clean sheet
37%
Piast Gliwice clean sheet
8%
What stands out
Total goals 3.5
30% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Lech Poznan 1.9 scored / 1.1 conceded · Piast Gliwice 1.4 / 1.6 per game
match.offsides 2.7
22% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Lech Poznan 1.2 + Piast Gliwice 1.5 per game
Cards 3.8
16% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Lech Poznan 1.8 + Piast Gliwice 2.0 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
P. Wålemark
Lech Poznan
29%
Shots
Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
1.7
Lech Poznan · on target
Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
0.9
Piast Gliwice · on target
J. Łabojko
Piast Gliwice
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Lech Poznan
At home- 1
- pts/game
- 0
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 1 of 2
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Piast Gliwice
Away- 0
- pts/game
- 0
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 1 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Lech Poznan · Recent form
- W1-0KI Klaksvik
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków
- L0-3Aarhus
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow
- W4-1Aarhus
Piast Gliwice · Recent form
- W4-3Wisla Krakow
- L0-2Zaglebie Lubin
- L0-2Odra Opole
- D2-2Miedz Legnica
- W1-0Baník Ostrava
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
Golazo's model makes Lech Poznan the more likely winner at 69%, with the draw at 18%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, at 9%. The model projects 3.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 59%, and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
More Ekstraklasa matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.