Match preview
Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo prediction
Helsingborg
8 in the table · 24 pts from 17
IFK Varnamo
15 in the table · 14 pts from 17
Tue, Aug 11, 01:00 PM
Olympia, Helsingborg
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Helsingborg the more likely winner at 44%, against 29% for IFK Varnamo and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 60%. Behind that: Helsingborg have scored in 14 of 17 league games this season, IFK Varnamo in 10 of 17.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Helsingborg win
44%
Draw
26%
IFK Varnamo win
29%
What our model expects
Anchored to the de-vigged consensus of 33 bookmakers, then expanded into the full picture they don't publish: every scoreline, both teams to score, clean sheets. We tested our own goal model against the market over 1,420 matches and the market won, so this starts from the sharper number. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.3
Total goals 2.9
Both teams score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Over 1.5 goals
80%
Helsingborg clean sheet
27%
IFK Varnamo clean sheet
19%
Shots
League average 12.5
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Björnström
IFK Varnamo
25%
Shots
S. Thern
IFK Varnamo
1.3
IFK Varnamo · on target
K. Meriluoto
IFK Varnamo
0.5
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Helsingborg
At home- 1.56
- pts/game
- 1.89
- scored
- 1.67
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 17
- Clean sheet in 11%
When their goals arrive
IFK Varnamo
Away- 0.67
- pts/game
- 1.11
- scored
- 2.78
- conceded
- Scored in 10 of 17
- Clean sheet in 11%
When their goals arrive
Helsingborg · Recent form
- L0-2IFK Norrkoping
- D1-1United Nordic
- W3-2Falkenbergs FF
- L0-2AB Copenhagen
- L2-4Sandviken
IFK Varnamo · Recent form
- W3-1Orebro SK
- D0-0IK brage
- L2-3Ljungskile SK
- L0-2Naestved
- L0-1Landskrona BoIS
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Golazo's model makes Helsingborg the more likely winner at 44%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 60%, and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
More Superettan matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.