Match preview
Gnistan vs Ilves prediction
Gnistan
Ilves
Gnistan
6 in the table · 29 pts from 19
Ilves
9 in the table · 25 pts from 19
Mon, Aug 17, 11:00 AM
Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Gnistan the more likely winner at 49%, against 27% for Ilves and 24% for the draw. It projects 3.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%, and puts both teams scoring at 66%. Behind that: Gnistan have scored in 14 of 19 league games this season, Ilves in 17 of 19.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Gnistan win
49%
Draw
24%
Ilves win
27%
What our model expects
GnistanPer gameIlvesNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2 – 1.4
Total goals 3.4
Both teams score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Over 1.5 goals
86%
Gnistan clean sheet
24%
Ilves clean sheet
14%
What stands out
Total goals 3.4
25% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Gnistan 1.5 scored / 1.2 conceded · Ilves 1.6 / 1.3 per game
Offsides 3
14% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Gnistan 1.6 + Ilves 1.4 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. Kanga
Ilves
27%
Shots
T. Hytönen
Ilves
1.6
Gnistan · on target
A. Akinyemi
Gnistan
0.6
Ilves · on target
J. Kanga
Ilves
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Gnistan
At home- 1.78
- pts/game
- 1.89
- scored
- 1.56
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 19
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Ilves
Away- 0.6
- pts/game
- 1.5
- scored
- 2.3
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 19
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Gnistan · Recent form
- D2-2SJK
- L0-1KuPS
- W2-1Inter Turku
- W2-0AC Oulu
- W4-2Mariehamn
Ilves · Recent form
- W2-0Mariehamn
- L0-1HNK Rijeka
- L0-1AC Oulu
- W1-0Stjarnan
- W1-0Lahti
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Gnistan vs Ilves?
Golazo's model makes Gnistan the more likely winner at 49%, with the draw at 24%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Gnistan vs Ilves?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 10%. The model projects 3.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Ilves?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 66%, and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
More Veikkausliiga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.