Match preview
FC Krasnodar vs Fakel: projection vs result
FC Krasnodar
3 in the table · 6 pts from 2
Fakel
14 in the table · 0 pts from 2
3–2
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes FC Krasnodar the more likely winner at 61%, against 14% for Fakel and 25% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: FC Krasnodar have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Fakel in 2 of 2. It finished FC Krasnodar 3–2 Fakel.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
FC Krasnodar win
61%
Draw
25%
Fakel win
14%
What we said, and what happened
0 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.6Actual 5Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 46%Actual YesMissed
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 48%Actual YesMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.8 – 0.8
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Over 1.5 goals
74%
FC Krasnodar clean sheet
46%
Fakel clean sheet
16%
What stands out
match.offsides 4
14% above a typical match · League average 3.5
FC Krasnodar 2.3 + Fakel 1.7 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
N. Krivtsov
FC Krasnodar
28%
Shots
N. Krivtsov
FC Krasnodar
1.7
FC Krasnodar · on target
N. Krivtsov
FC Krasnodar
0.8
Fakel · on target
A. Gnapi Dable
Fakel
0.6
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
FC Krasnodar
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 3
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Fakel
Away- 0
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 3
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
FC Krasnodar · Recent form
- D1-1Akhmat
- W3-2Fakel
- W3-1Rubin
- D1-1Baltika
- D3-3FC Rostov
Fakel · Recent form
- L0-1Dynamo
- L2-3FC Krasnodar
- L1-2Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-2FC Rostov
- D1-1Akron
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
Golazo's model makes FC Krasnodar the more likely winner at 61%, with the draw at 25%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 13%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
More Russian Premier League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.