Match preview

FC Krasnodar vs Fakel: projection vs result

FC Krasnodar

3 in the table · 6 pts from 2

Fakel

14 in the table · 0 pts from 2

32

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes FC Krasnodar the more likely winner at 61%, against 14% for Fakel and 25% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: FC Krasnodar have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Fakel in 2 of 2. It finished FC Krasnodar 3–2 Fakel.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

FC Krasnodar win

61%

Draw

25%

Fakel win

14%

Most likely scorelines1013%2012%1112%

What we said, and what happened

0 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.6Actual 5Missed
  • Both teams scoreProjected 46%Actual YesMissed
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 48%Actual YesMissed

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.8 0.8

Total goals 2.6

Both teams score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

FC Krasnodar clean sheet

46%

Fakel clean sheet

16%

What stands out

  • match.offsides 4

    14% above a typical match · League average 3.5

    FC Krasnodar 2.3 + Fakel 1.7 per game

Corners

League average 5

FC Krasnodar4.5
Fakel4.5

Cards

League average 2.25

FC Krasnodar2.7
Fakel1.4

Shots

League average 12.5

FC Krasnodar14
Fakel11.8

Possession

FC Krasnodar52
Fakel48

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

N. Krivtsov

FC Krasnodar

28%

Shots

N. Krivtsov

FC Krasnodar

1.7

FC Krasnodar · on target

N. Krivtsov

FC Krasnodar

0.8

Fakel · on target

A. Gnapi Dable

Fakel

0.6

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

FC Krasnodar

At home
3
pts/game
3
scored
2
conceded
  • Scored in 2 of 2
  • Clean sheet in 0%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Fakel

Away
0
pts/game
2
scored
3
conceded
  • Scored in 2 of 2
  • Clean sheet in 0%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

FC Krasnodar · Recent form

  • D1-1Akhmat
  • W3-2Fakel
  • W3-1Rubin
  • D1-1Baltika
  • D3-3FC Rostov

Fakel · Recent form

  • L0-1Dynamo
  • L2-3FC Krasnodar
  • L1-2Dinamo Makhachkala
  • L1-2FC Rostov
  • D1-1Akron

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Golazo's model makes FC Krasnodar the more likely winner at 61%, with the draw at 25%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 13%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

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