Match preview
Fakel vs Akhmat prediction
Fakel
14 in the table · 0 pts from 2
Akhmat
12 in the table · 1 pts from 2
Mon, Aug 10, 12:30 PM
Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Akhmat the more likely winner at 44%, against 26% for Fakel and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 49%. Behind that: Fakel have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Akhmat in 2 of 2.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Fakel win
26%
Draw
30%
Akhmat win
44%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1 – 1.4
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Fakel clean sheet
25%
Akhmat clean sheet
36%
What stands out
Cards 3.3
28% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Fakel 1.4 + Akhmat 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Egas Cacintura
Akhmat
20%
Shots
Ismael Silva Lima
Akhmat
1.5
Fakel · on target
A. Gnapi Dable
Fakel
0.6
Akhmat · on target
M. Samorodov
Akhmat
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Fakel
At home- 0
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Akhmat
Away- 1
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Fakel · Recent form
- L0-1Dynamo
- L2-3FC Krasnodar
- L1-2Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-2FC Rostov
- D1-1Akron
Akhmat · Recent form
- D1-1FC Krasnodar
- L1-2Spartak Moscow
- D1-1Lokomotiv
- W1-0Ajman
- W3-0Radnik Bijeljina
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Fakel vs Akhmat?
Golazo's model makes Akhmat the more likely winner at 44%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Fakel vs Akhmat?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Akhmat?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 49%, and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
More Russian Premier League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.