Match preview
Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC: projection vs result
Cruz Azul
6 in the table · 6 pts from 3
Atlante FC
10 in the table · 4 pts from 3
2–3
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Cruz Azul the more likely winner at 53%, against 27% for Atlante FC and 21% for the draw. It projects 4.1 goals in total, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%, and puts both teams scoring at 75%. It finished Cruz Azul 2–3 Atlante FC.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Cruz Azul win
53%
Draw
21%
Atlante FC win
27%
What we said, and what happened
2 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 4.1Actual 5Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 75%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 78%Actual YesCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2.4 – 1.7
Total goals 4.1
Both teams score
75%
Over 2.5 goals
78%
Over 1.5 goals
92%
Cruz Azul clean sheet
18%
Atlante FC clean sheet
9%
What stands out
Total goals 4.1
52% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Cruz Azul 2.0 scored / 1.6 conceded · Atlante FC 1.5 / 1.4 per game
Cards 3.5
22% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Cruz Azul 1.8 + Atlante FC 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
L. Romero
Cruz Azul
39%
Shots
G. Fernández
Cruz Azul
2.8
Cruz Azul · on target
G. Fernández
Cruz Azul
1.4
Atlante FC · on target
L. Calzadilla
Atlante FC
0.8
Cruz Azul · Recent form
- L2-3Atlante FC
- W3-1Toluca
- W2-1Puebla
- W3-2Atletico San Luis
- D3-3Monarcas
Atlante FC · Recent form
- W1-0Vancouver Whitecaps
- W3-2Cruz Azul
- D1-1Club America
- L1-2Necaxa
- D3-3Toluca
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC?
Golazo's model makes Cruz Azul the more likely winner at 53%, with the draw at 21%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC?
The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, at 8%. The model projects 4.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 75%, and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
More Liga MX matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.