Match preview
Atlas vs Monterrey: projection vs result
Atlas
9 in the table · 6 pts from 3
Monterrey
5 in the table · 6 pts from 3
0–2
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Monterrey the more likely winner at 43%, against 33% for Atlas and 24% for the draw. It projects 3.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%, and puts both teams scoring at 67%. It finished Atlas 0–2 Monterrey.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Atlas win
33%
Draw
24%
Monterrey win
43%
What we said, and what happened
0 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 3.4Actual 2Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 67%Actual NoMissed
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 66%Actual NoMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.8
Total goals 3.4
Both teams score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Over 1.5 goals
86%
Atlas clean sheet
16%
Monterrey clean sheet
21%
What stands out
Total goals 3.4
25% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Atlas 1.3 scored / 1.6 conceded · Monterrey 1.6 / 1.4 per game
Cards 5.1
13% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Atlas 2.5 + Monterrey 2.6 per game
Fouls 23.6
13% above a typical match · League average 21
Atlas 10.9 + Monterrey 12.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
L. Ocampos
Monterrey
38%
Shots
L. Ocampos
Monterrey
2
Atlas · on target
A. González
Atlas
0.6
Monterrey · on target
L. Ocampos
Monterrey
1
Atlas · Recent form
- L1-3Columbus Crew
- L0-2Monterrey
- W1-0Santos Laguna
- W3-2Leon
- L3-4Puebla
Monterrey · Recent form
- W2-0Atlas
- L1-2Necaxa
- W3-2Santos Laguna
- D1-1Atlante FC
- W4-1Cancún
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Atlas vs Monterrey?
Golazo's model makes Monterrey the more likely winner at 43%, with the draw at 24%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Atlas vs Monterrey?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11%. The model projects 3.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Atlas vs Monterrey?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 67%, and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
More Liga MX matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.