Match preview
Leon vs CF Pachuca: projection vs result
Leon
14 in the table · 3 pts from 3
CF Pachuca
13 in the table · 3 pts from 3
1–0
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes CF Pachuca the more likely winner at 42%, against 33% for Leon and 25% for the draw. It projects 3.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%, and puts both teams scoring at 67%. Behind that: Leon have scored in 2 of 3 league games this season, CF Pachuca in 2 of 3. It finished Leon 1–0 CF Pachuca.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Leon win
33%
Draw
25%
CF Pachuca win
42%
What we said, and what happened
0 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 3.4Actual 1Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 67%Actual NoMissed
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 65%Actual NoMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.8
Total goals 3.4
Both teams score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Over 1.5 goals
86%
Leon clean sheet
17%
CF Pachuca clean sheet
21%
What stands out
Total goals 3.4
24% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Leon 1.6 scored / 1.8 conceded · CF Pachuca 1.5 / 1.2 per game
Cards 5.1
14% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Leon 2.7 + CF Pachuca 2.4 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
S. Rondón
CF Pachuca
33%
Shots
S. Rondón
CF Pachuca
1.6
Leon · on target
E. Guerra
Leon
0.7
CF Pachuca · on target
S. Rondón
CF Pachuca
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Leon
At home- 1.5
- pts/game
- 1.5
- scored
- 1.5
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 3
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
CF Pachuca
Away- 1.5
- pts/game
- 1.5
- scored
- 0.5
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 3
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
Leon · Recent form
- W1-0Nashville SC
- W1-0CF Pachuca
- L0-1Club Tijuana
- L2-3Atlas
- W4-2Tapatío
CF Pachuca · Recent form
- L1-3FC Cincinnati
- L0-1Leon
- L1-2Club Queretaro
- W3-0U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- W3-1Puebla
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Leon vs CF Pachuca?
Golazo's model makes CF Pachuca the more likely winner at 42%, with the draw at 25%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Leon vs CF Pachuca?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11%. The model projects 3.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Leon vs CF Pachuca?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 67%, and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
More Liga MX matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.