Match preview
Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor prediction
Başakşehir
Kocaelispor
Başakşehir
5 in the table · 57 pts from 34
Kocaelispor
10 in the table · 37 pts from 34
Sun, Aug 16, 12:00 PM
Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Başakşehir the more likely winner at 57%, against 15% for Kocaelispor and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.2 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%, and puts both teams scoring at 39%. Behind that: Başakşehir have scored in 28 of 34 league games this season, Kocaelispor in 19 of 34.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Başakşehir win
57%
Draw
28%
Kocaelispor win
15%
What our model expects
BaşakşehirPer gameKocaelisporNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.5 – 0.7
Total goals 2.2
Both teams score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Over 1.5 goals
65%
Başakşehir clean sheet
52%
Kocaelispor clean sheet
22%
What stands out
Total goals 2.2
19% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Başakşehir 1.5 scored / 1.2 conceded · Kocaelispor 0.7 / 1.2 per game
Fouls 23.9
14% above a typical match · League average 21
Başakşehir 11.0 + Kocaelispor 12.9 per game
Offsides 4.1
16% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Başakşehir 1.8 + Kocaelispor 2.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
B. Petković
Kocaelispor
27%
Shots
B. Petković
Kocaelispor
1.6
Başakşehir · on target
E. Shomurodov
Başakşehir
0.6
Kocaelispor · on target
B. Petković
Kocaelispor
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Başakşehir
At home- 1.76
- pts/game
- 1.94
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 28 of 34
- Clean sheet in 41%
When their goals arrive
Kocaelispor
Away- 0.82
- pts/game
- 0.65
- scored
- 1.47
- conceded
- Scored in 19 of 34
- Clean sheet in 18%
When their goals arrive
Başakşehir · Recent form
- L0-2Inter Turku
- D1-1Inter Turku
- W2-0Puskas Academy
- W2-1Red Bull Salzburg
- D1-1Ried
Kocaelispor · Recent form
- L0-1Antalyaspor
- L0-1Fatih Karagümrük
- D1-1Kasımpaşa
- L0-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- D1-1Göztepe
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor?
Golazo's model makes Başakşehir the more likely winner at 57%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 16%. The model projects 2.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 39%, and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
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