Match preview

Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow: projection vs result

Akhmat

12 in the table · 1 pts from 2

Spartak Moscow

2 in the table · 6 pts from 2

12

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model rates this close to even: Akhmat 32%, the draw 33%, Spartak Moscow 35%. It projects 2.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 44%. Behind that: Akhmat have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Spartak Moscow in 2 of 2. It finished Akhmat 1–2 Spartak Moscow.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Akhmat win

32%

Draw

33%

Spartak Moscow win

35%

Most likely scorelines1115%0013%0112%

What we said, and what happened

0 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.1Actual 3Missed
  • Both teams scoreProjected 44%Actual YesMissed
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 35%Actual YesMissed

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1 1.1

Total goals 2.1

Both teams score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Akhmat clean sheet

34%

Spartak Moscow clean sheet

36%

What stands out

  • Cards 3.4

    24% below a typical match · League average 4.5

    Akhmat 1.8 + Spartak Moscow 1.6 per game

  • Total goals 2.1

    22% below a typical match · League average 2.7

    Akhmat 1.3 scored / 1.1 conceded · Spartak Moscow 1.5 / 0.9 per game

  • match.offsides 4

    14% above a typical match · League average 3.5

    Akhmat 1.5 + Spartak Moscow 2.5 per game

Corners

League average 5

Akhmat4.5
Spartak Moscow5

Cards

League average 2.25

Akhmat1.8
Spartak Moscow1.6

Shots

League average 12.5

Akhmat13.3
Spartak Moscow14.1

Possession

Akhmat46
Spartak Moscow54

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

Egas Cacintura

Akhmat

15%

Shots

Ismael Silva Lima

Akhmat

1.5

Akhmat · on target

M. Samorodov

Akhmat

0.7

Spartak Moscow · on target

E. Barco

Spartak Moscow

0.7

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Akhmat

At home
0
pts/game
1
scored
2
conceded
  • Scored in 2 of 2
  • Clean sheet in 0%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Spartak Moscow

Away
3
pts/game
2
scored
1
conceded
  • Scored in 2 of 2
  • Clean sheet in 0%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Akhmat · Recent form

  • D1-1FC Krasnodar
  • L1-2Spartak Moscow
  • D1-1Lokomotiv
  • W1-0Ajman
  • W3-0Radnik Bijeljina

Spartak Moscow · Recent form

  • W5-1FC Orenburg
  • W2-1Akhmat
  • W3-0Rodina Moskva
  • D1-1Zenit
  • L0-2Lokomotiv

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?

Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Akhmat 32%, the draw 33%, Spartak Moscow 35%. No side is a clear favourite.

What is the most likely score in Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 44%, and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

More Russian Premier League matches

All Russian Premier League fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.