Match preview
Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow: projection vs result
Akhmat
12 in the table · 1 pts from 2
Spartak Moscow
2 in the table · 6 pts from 2
1–2
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model rates this close to even: Akhmat 32%, the draw 33%, Spartak Moscow 35%. It projects 2.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 44%. Behind that: Akhmat have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Spartak Moscow in 2 of 2. It finished Akhmat 1–2 Spartak Moscow.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Akhmat win
32%
Draw
33%
Spartak Moscow win
35%
What we said, and what happened
0 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.1Actual 3Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 44%Actual YesMissed
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 35%Actual YesMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1 – 1.1
Total goals 2.1
Both teams score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Over 1.5 goals
64%
Akhmat clean sheet
34%
Spartak Moscow clean sheet
36%
What stands out
Cards 3.4
24% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Akhmat 1.8 + Spartak Moscow 1.6 per game
Total goals 2.1
22% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Akhmat 1.3 scored / 1.1 conceded · Spartak Moscow 1.5 / 0.9 per game
match.offsides 4
14% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Akhmat 1.5 + Spartak Moscow 2.5 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Egas Cacintura
Akhmat
15%
Shots
Ismael Silva Lima
Akhmat
1.5
Akhmat · on target
M. Samorodov
Akhmat
0.7
Spartak Moscow · on target
E. Barco
Spartak Moscow
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Akhmat
At home- 0
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Spartak Moscow
Away- 3
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Akhmat · Recent form
- D1-1FC Krasnodar
- L1-2Spartak Moscow
- D1-1Lokomotiv
- W1-0Ajman
- W3-0Radnik Bijeljina
Spartak Moscow · Recent form
- W5-1FC Orenburg
- W2-1Akhmat
- W3-0Rodina Moskva
- D1-1Zenit
- L0-2Lokomotiv
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Akhmat 32%, the draw 33%, Spartak Moscow 35%. No side is a clear favourite.
What is the most likely score in Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 44%, and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.