Match preview
Vitoria vs Bahia prediction
Vitoria
Bahia
Vitoria
12 in the table · 29 pts from 23
Bahia
6 in the table · 34 pts from 23
Sun, Aug 23, 03:00 PM
Barradao, Salvador
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Bahia the more likely winner at 38%, against 32% for Vitoria and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 51%. Behind that: Vitoria have scored in 15 of 23 league games this season, Bahia in 31 of 38.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Vitoria win
32%
Draw
30%
Bahia win
38%
What our model expects
VitoriaPer gameBahiaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.3
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Vitoria clean sheet
28%
Bahia clean sheet
31%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Willian José
Bahia
21%
Shots
Rodrigo Nestor
Bahia
1.9
Vitoria · on target
Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
0.7
Bahia · on target
C. Olivera
Bahia
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Vitoria
At home- 2.27
- pts/game
- 1.45
- scored
- 0.64
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 23
- Clean sheet in 73%
When their goals arrive
Bahia
Away- 0.79
- pts/game
- 0.89
- scored
- 1.68
- conceded
- Scored in 31 of 38
- Clean sheet in 16%
When their goals arrive
Vitoria · Recent form
- W1-0Botafogo
- L0-2Flamengo
- W4-0Atletico Paranaense
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense
- L0-4Palmeiras
Bahia · Recent form
- D3-3Chapecoense-sc
- D0-0Vasco DA Gama
- D0-0Fluminense
- D1-1Corinthians
- D1-1Atletico-MG
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Vitoria vs Bahia?
Golazo's model makes Bahia the more likely winner at 38%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Vitoria vs Bahia?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Bahia?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 51%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.