Match preview

Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau prediction

Sturm Graz
v
Austria Lustenau
492922
Sturm GrazDrawAustria Lustenau
Goals expectedBoth teams score48%Over 2.5 goals44%Total goals2.4
Why this pick +Our own read — no book has priced it

Sturm Graz

4 in the table · 7 pts from 3

Austria Lustenau

6 in the table · 4 pts from 3

Sat, Aug 22, 01:30 PM

Merkur-Arena, Graz

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Sturm Graz the more likely winner at 49%, against 22% for Austria Lustenau and 29% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 48%. Behind that: Sturm Graz have scored in 3 of 3 league games this season, Austria Lustenau in 3 of 3.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Sturm Graz win

49%

Draw

29%

Austria Lustenau win

22%

Most likely scorelines1–114%1–012%0–010%

What our model expects

Sturm GrazPer gameAustria Lustenau
WLWLDLast 5WLDWL
0.0Conceded2.0
3.00Points per game0.00
1.5Expected goals0.9
6.0Corners4.7
1.9Cards2.1
15.0Shots13.7
51Possession49
1.0Scored1.0

Built from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.5 – 0.9

Total goals 2.4

Both teams score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Sturm Graz clean sheet

39%

Austria Lustenau clean sheet

22%

Corners

League average 5

Sturm Graz6
Austria Lustenau4.7

Cards

League average 2.25

Sturm Graz1.9
Austria Lustenau2.1

Shots

League average 12.5

Sturm Graz15
Austria Lustenau13.7

Possession

Sturm Graz51
Austria Lustenau49

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

A. Verinac

Austria Lustenau

19%

Shots

A. Verinac

Austria Lustenau

1.8

Sturm Graz · on target

S. Włodarczyk

Sturm Graz

0.6

Austria Lustenau · on target

A. Verinac

Austria Lustenau

0.7

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Sturm Graz

At home
3
pts/game
1
scored
0
conceded
  • Scored in 3 of 3
  • Clean sheet in 100%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Austria Lustenau

Away
0
pts/game
1
scored
2
conceded
  • Scored in 3 of 3
  • Clean sheet in 0%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Sturm Graz · Recent form

  • W1-0SCR Altach
  • L0-1Fenerbahçe
  • W2-0TSV Hartberg
  • L0-2Fenerbahçe
  • D1-1WSG Wattens

Austria Lustenau · Recent form

  • W2-1Wolfsberger AC
  • L1-2Grazer AK
  • D1-1Ried
  • W1-0Krems / Rehberg
  • L0-1Nürnberg II

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

See the full recordHow it works

Common questions

Who will win Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?

Golazo's model makes Sturm Graz the more likely winner at 49%, with the draw at 29%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 48%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

More Austrian Bundesliga matches

All Austrian Bundesliga fixtures and the table →

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.