Match preview
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama prediction
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
1 in the table · 48 pts from 23
Vasco DA Gama
19 in the table · 22 pts from 22
Sun, Aug 23, 03:00 PM
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 66%, against 12% for Vasco DA Gama and 22% for the draw. It projects 2.8 goals in total, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: Palmeiras have scored in 21 of 23 league games this season, Vasco DA Gama in 15 of 22.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Palmeiras win
66%
Draw
22%
Vasco DA Gama win
12%
What our model expects
PalmeirasPer gameVasco DA GamaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2 – 0.7
Total goals 2.8
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Palmeiras clean sheet
48%
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
13%
What stands out
Fouls 24.3
16% above a typical match · League average 21
Palmeiras 11.2 + Vasco DA Gama 13.1 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. López
Palmeiras
34%
Shots
C. Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
2.6
Palmeiras · on target
Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
1.1
Vasco DA Gama · on target
Philippe Coutinho
Vasco DA Gama
1.3
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Palmeiras
At home- 2.18
- pts/game
- 1.55
- scored
- 0.73
- conceded
- Scored in 21 of 23
- Clean sheet in 36%
When their goals arrive
Vasco DA Gama
Away- 0.5
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1.7
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 22
- Clean sheet in 10%
When their goals arrive
Palmeiras · Recent form
- L2-3Fluminense
- D1-1Cerro Porteno
- D0-0Internacional
- L2-3Fortaleza EC
- W3-0Fortaleza EC
Vasco DA Gama · Recent form
- L0-3Santos
- D0-0Olimpia
- D0-0Bahia
- W3-1Fluminense
- D0-0Fluminense
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Golazo's model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 66%, with the draw at 22%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, at 13%. The model projects 2.8 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.