Match preview
Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo: projection vs result
Orebro SK
14 in the table · 15 pts from 17
IFK Varnamo
15 in the table · 14 pts from 17
1–3
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Orebro SK the more likely winner at 41%, against 29% for IFK Varnamo and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 51%. Behind that: Orebro SK have scored in 11 of 17 league games this season, IFK Varnamo in 10 of 17. It finished Orebro SK 1–3 IFK Varnamo.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Orebro SK win
41%
Draw
30%
IFK Varnamo win
29%
What we said, and what happened
1 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.5Actual 4Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 51%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 44%Actual YesMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.1
Total goals 2.5
Both teams score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Over 1.5 goals
72%
Orebro SK clean sheet
33%
IFK Varnamo clean sheet
26%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Björnström
IFK Varnamo
21%
Shots
Ahmed Yasin Ghani Mousa
Orebro SK
1.3
Orebro SK · on target
Ahmed Yasin Ghani Mousa
Orebro SK
0.6
IFK Varnamo · on target
K. Meriluoto
IFK Varnamo
0.5
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Orebro SK
At home- 1
- pts/game
- 0.78
- scored
- 1.33
- conceded
- Scored in 11 of 17
- Clean sheet in 22%
When their goals arrive
IFK Varnamo
Away- 0.67
- pts/game
- 1.11
- scored
- 2.78
- conceded
- Scored in 10 of 17
- Clean sheet in 11%
When their goals arrive
Orebro SK · Recent form
- L1-3IFK Varnamo
- D0-0Oddevold
- L0-2United Nordic
- W4-2Ostersunds FK
- L2-3Ljungskile SK
IFK Varnamo · Recent form
- W3-1Orebro SK
- D0-0IK brage
- L2-3Ljungskile SK
- L0-2Naestved
- L0-1Landskrona BoIS
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo?
Golazo's model makes Orebro SK the more likely winner at 41%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 51%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
More Superettan matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.