Match preview
FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia prediction
FC Tokyo
2 in the table · 37 pts from 18
Machida Zelvia
3 in the table · 37 pts from 18
Sat, Aug 8, 06:00 AM
Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
The short answer
Golazo's model makes FC Tokyo the more likely winner at 45%, against 26% for Machida Zelvia and 29% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 50%. Behind that: FC Tokyo have scored in 15 of 20 league games this season, Machida Zelvia in 18 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
FC Tokyo win
45%
Draw
29%
Machida Zelvia win
26%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.4 – 1
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
FC Tokyo clean sheet
36%
Machida Zelvia clean sheet
24%
What stands out
Cards 3.7
17% below a typical match · League average 4.5
FC Tokyo 1.9 + Machida Zelvia 1.9 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Erik
Machida Zelvia
27%
Shots
Marcelo Ryan
FC Tokyo
2.6
FC Tokyo · on target
Marcelo Ryan
FC Tokyo
1.2
Machida Zelvia · on target
S. Fujio
Machida Zelvia
0.8
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
FC Tokyo
At home- 1.8
- pts/game
- 1.7
- scored
- 1.4
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 20
- Clean sheet in 20%
When their goals arrive
Machida Zelvia
Away- 1.9
- pts/game
- 1.8
- scored
- 1.4
- conceded
- Scored in 18 of 20
- Clean sheet in 30%
When their goals arrive
FC Tokyo · Recent form
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund
- W2-1Nagoya Grampus
- L1-3Cerezo Osaka
- D2-2Cerezo Osaka
- L0-1Kashima
Machida Zelvia · Recent form
- W2-1Fujieda MYFC
- W2-1Nagoya Grampus
- D2-2Nagoya Grampus
- W1-0Urawa
- D1-1Kawasaki Frontale
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia?
Golazo's model makes FC Tokyo the more likely winner at 45%, with the draw at 29%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 50%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
More J1 League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.