Match preview
Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC: projection vs result
Daejeon Citizen
9 in the table · 23 pts from 21
Gwangju FC
12 in the table · 10 pts from 21
2–0
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Daejeon Citizen the more likely winner at 55%, against 17% for Gwangju FC and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 44%. It finished Daejeon Citizen 2–0 Gwangju FC.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Daejeon Citizen win
55%
Draw
28%
Gwangju FC win
17%
What we said, and what happened
3 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.4Actual 2Called
- Both teams scoreProjected 44%Actual NoCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 42%Actual NoCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 0.8
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Daejeon Citizen clean sheet
46%
Gwangju FC clean sheet
21%
What stands out
match.offsides 4.4
26% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Daejeon Citizen 2.0 + Gwangju FC 2.4 per game
Cards 3.4
25% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Daejeon Citizen 1.6 + Gwangju FC 1.8 per game
Total goals 2.4
13% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Daejeon Citizen 1.3 scored / 1.2 conceded · Gwangju FC 0.9 / 1.4 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
M. Ishida
Daejeon Citizen
30%
Shots
M. Ishida
Daejeon Citizen
1.9
Daejeon Citizen · on target
M. Ishida
Daejeon Citizen
1
Gwangju FC · on target
Moon Min-seo
Gwangju FC
0.6
Daejeon Citizen · Recent form
- W2-0Gwangju FC
- L2-3Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D0-0Jeonbuk Motors
- D2-2Ulsan Hyundai FC
- D0-0Jeju United FC
Gwangju FC · Recent form
- L0-2Daejeon Citizen
- W1-0Cheonan City
- L1-2Jeju United FC
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D1-1FC Anyang
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Golazo's model makes Daejeon Citizen the more likely winner at 55%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 44%, and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
More K League 1 matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.