Match preview

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC: projection vs result

Daejeon Citizen

9 in the table · 23 pts from 21

Gwangju FC

12 in the table · 10 pts from 21

20

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Daejeon Citizen the more likely winner at 55%, against 17% for Gwangju FC and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 44%. It finished Daejeon Citizen 2–0 Gwangju FC.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Daejeon Citizen win

55%

Draw

28%

Gwangju FC win

17%

Most likely scorelines1014%1113%2012%

What we said, and what happened

3 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.4Actual 2Called
  • Both teams scoreProjected 44%Actual NoCalled
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 42%Actual NoCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.6 0.8

Total goals 2.4

Both teams score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Daejeon Citizen clean sheet

46%

Gwangju FC clean sheet

21%

What stands out

  • match.offsides 4.4

    26% above a typical match · League average 3.5

    Daejeon Citizen 2.0 + Gwangju FC 2.4 per game

  • Cards 3.4

    25% below a typical match · League average 4.5

    Daejeon Citizen 1.6 + Gwangju FC 1.8 per game

  • Total goals 2.4

    13% below a typical match · League average 2.7

    Daejeon Citizen 1.3 scored / 1.2 conceded · Gwangju FC 0.9 / 1.4 per game

Corners

League average 5

Daejeon Citizen5.4
Gwangju FC4.9

Cards

League average 2.25

Daejeon Citizen1.6
Gwangju FC1.8

Shots

League average 12.5

Daejeon Citizen12
Gwangju FC11.8

Possession

Daejeon Citizen49
Gwangju FC51

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

M. Ishida

Daejeon Citizen

30%

Shots

M. Ishida

Daejeon Citizen

1.9

Daejeon Citizen · on target

M. Ishida

Daejeon Citizen

1

Gwangju FC · on target

Moon Min-seo

Gwangju FC

0.6

Daejeon Citizen · Recent form

  • W2-0Gwangju FC
  • L2-3Gimcheon Sangmu FC
  • D0-0Jeonbuk Motors
  • D2-2Ulsan Hyundai FC
  • D0-0Jeju United FC

Gwangju FC · Recent form

  • L0-2Daejeon Citizen
  • W1-0Cheonan City
  • L1-2Jeju United FC
  • D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC
  • D1-1FC Anyang

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?

Golazo's model makes Daejeon Citizen the more likely winner at 55%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 44%, and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

More K League 1 matches

All K League 1 fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.