Match preview
Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction
Atalanta
Sassuolo
Atalanta
7 in the table · 59 pts from 38
Sassuolo
11 in the table · 49 pts from 38
Sun, Aug 23, 02:45 PM
New Balance Arena, Bergamo
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Atalanta the more likely winner at 51%, against 21% for Sassuolo and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 49%. Behind that: Atalanta have scored in 30 of 38 league games this season, Sassuolo in 26 of 38.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Atalanta win
51%
Draw
28%
Sassuolo win
21%
What our model expects
AtalantaPer gameSassuoloNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 0.9
Total goals 2.5
Both teams score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Over 1.5 goals
72%
Atalanta clean sheet
40%
Sassuolo clean sheet
21%
What stands out
Cards 3.8
16% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Atalanta 2.0 + Sassuolo 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
G. Scamacca
Atalanta
38%
Shots
N. Krstović
Atalanta
2.9
Atalanta · on target
N. Krstović
Atalanta
1.4
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Atalanta
At home- 1.74
- pts/game
- 1.32
- scored
- 0.79
- conceded
- Scored in 30 of 38
- Clean sheet in 37%
When their goals arrive
Sassuolo
Away- 1.05
- pts/game
- 1.11
- scored
- 1.26
- conceded
- Scored in 26 of 38
- Clean sheet in 21%
When their goals arrive
Atalanta · Recent form
- W1-0Athletic Club
- W3-0FC Schalke 04
- L1-2Feyenoord
- W3-2Arezzo
- D1-1Fiorentina
Sassuolo · Recent form
- W3-0Cesena
- L2-3FC Augsburg
- L1-4Celta Vigo
- D0-0Folgore Caratese
- L0-2Trento
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Golazo's model makes Atalanta the more likely winner at 51%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 49%, and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
More Serie A matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.