Match preview
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire prediction
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
Sat, Aug 22, 07:30 PM
Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Chicago Fire the more likely winner at 48%, against 28% for New York Red Bulls and 25% for the draw. It projects 3.3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%, and puts both teams scoring at 64%. Behind that: New York Red Bulls have scored in 15 of 19 league games this season, Chicago Fire in 17 of 18.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
New York Red Bulls win
28%
Draw
25%
Chicago Fire win
48%
What our model expects
New York Red BullsPer gameChicago FireNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.9
Total goals 3.3
Both teams score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Over 1.5 goals
85%
New York Red Bulls clean sheet
16%
Chicago Fire clean sheet
25%
What stands out
Total goals 3.3
20% above a typical match · League average 2.7
New York Red Bulls 1.6 scored / 2.1 conceded · Chicago Fire 1.9 / 1.3 per game
Fouls 24.2
15% above a typical match · League average 21
New York Red Bulls 12.0 + Chicago Fire 12.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
H. Cuypers
Chicago Fire
46%
Shots
H. Cuypers
Chicago Fire
2.4
New York Red Bulls · on target
J. Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
0.9
Chicago Fire · on target
H. Cuypers
Chicago Fire
1.4
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
New York Red Bulls
At home- 1.56
- pts/game
- 1.78
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 19
- Clean sheet in 11%
When their goals arrive
Chicago Fire
Away- 1.38
- pts/game
- 1.75
- scored
- 1.63
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 18
- Clean sheet in 25%
When their goals arrive
New York Red Bulls · Recent form
- L1-2Atlanta United FC
- W3-2Orlando City SC
- L0-2Charlotte
- L1-3Philadelphia Union
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City
Chicago Fire · Recent form
- W2-1Portland Timbers
- W2-1Cruz Azul
- W3-1Santos Laguna
- W2-0Necaxa
- W2-1Charlotte
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
Golazo's model makes Chicago Fire the more likely winner at 48%, with the draw at 25%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11%. The model projects 3.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 64%, and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
More MLS matches
- Nashville SC vs Inter MiamiAug 15
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- Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas CityAug 15
- Los Angeles FC vs San DiegoAug 15
- San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CityAug 15
- New York City FC vs Philadelphia UnionAug 16
- Chicago Fire vs Portland TimbersAug 16
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.