Match preview
Metz vs Guingamp prediction
Metz
Guingamp
11 in the table · 40 pts from 34
Sat, Aug 8, 02:45 PM
Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Metz the more likely winner at 60%, against 17% for Guingamp and 23% for the draw. It projects 3.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%, and puts both teams scoring at 57%. Behind that: Metz have scored in 29 of 35 league games this season, Guingamp in 23 of 34.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Metz win
60%
Draw
23%
Guingamp win
17%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2 – 1
Total goals 3.1
Both teams score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Over 1.5 goals
82%
Metz clean sheet
36%
Guingamp clean sheet
13%
What stands out
Total goals 3.1
13% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Metz 1.6 scored / 1.7 conceded · Guingamp 0.9 / 1.5 per game
Shots
League average 12.5
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
L. Mafouta
Guingamp
34%
Shots
L. Mafouta
Guingamp
1.8
Metz · on target
G. Abuashvili
Metz
0.8
Guingamp · on target
L. Mafouta
Guingamp
1.1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Metz
At home- 2.17
- pts/game
- 2.11
- scored
- 0.83
- conceded
- Scored in 29 of 35
- Clean sheet in 39%
When their goals arrive
Guingamp
Away- 1
- pts/game
- 1.35
- scored
- 1.59
- conceded
- Scored in 23 of 34
- Clean sheet in 18%
When their goals arrive
Metz · Recent form
- L1-31. FC Kaiserslautern
- W3-1Fortuna Sittard
- W4-1Sochaux
- W6-0Seraing United
- W2-1Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Guingamp · Recent form
- D3-3Stade Brestois 29
- L0-2Lorient
- L0-1Concarneau
- L1-3Rennes
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Metz vs Guingamp?
Golazo's model makes Metz the more likely winner at 60%, with the draw at 23%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Metz vs Guingamp?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11%. The model projects 3.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Guingamp?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 57%, and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
More Ligue 2 matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.