Match preview

Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli prediction

Holstein Kiel
v
FC St. Pauli
512226
Holstein KielDrawFC St. Pauli
Goals expectedBoth teams score70%Over 2.5 goals71%Total goals3.7
Why this pick +Our own read — no book has priced it

Holstein Kiel

7 in the table · 1 pts from 1

FC St. Pauli

10 in the table · 1 pts from 1

Fri, Aug 14, 12:30 PM

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Holstein Kiel the more likely winner at 51%, against 26% for FC St. Pauli and 22% for the draw. It projects 3.7 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%, and puts both teams scoring at 70%. Behind that: Holstein Kiel have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, FC St. Pauli in 1 of 1.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Holstein Kiel win

51%

Draw

22%

FC St. Pauli win

26%

Most likely scorelines1–19%2–19%2–27%

What our model expects

Holstein KielPer gameFC St. Pauli
DLLDWLast 5DDLWW
2.2Expected goals1.5
2.4Cards2.0
4.9Corners5.4
49Possession51
12.8Shots13.0
0.0Scored0.0
0.0Conceded0.0
0.00Points per game0.00

Built from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

2.2 – 1.5

Total goals 3.7

Both teams score

70%

Over 2.5 goals

71%

Over 1.5 goals

89%

Holstein Kiel clean sheet

22%

FC St. Pauli clean sheet

12%

What stands out

  • Total goals 3.7

    36% above a typical match · League average 2.7

    Holstein Kiel 1.5 scored / 1.6 conceded · FC St. Pauli 1.4 / 1.8 per game

  • Offsides 4.2

    20% above a typical match · League average 3.5

    Holstein Kiel 1.4 + FC St. Pauli 2.8 per game

Corners

League average 5

Holstein Kiel4.9
FC St. Pauli5.4

Cards

League average 2.25

Holstein Kiel2.4
FC St. Pauli2

Shots

League average 12.5

Holstein Kiel12.8
FC St. Pauli13

Possession

Holstein Kiel49
FC St. Pauli51

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

Abdoulie Ceesay

FC St. Pauli

29%

Shots

Abdoulie Ceesay

FC St. Pauli

2.2

FC St. Pauli · on target

Abdoulie Ceesay

FC St. Pauli

1

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Holstein Kiel

At home
  • Scored in 1 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

FC St. Pauli

Away
  • Scored in 1 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Holstein Kiel · Recent form

  • D2-2SV Darmstadt 98
  • L1-31899 Hoffenheim
  • L0-3FSV Mainz 05
  • D2-2Swansea
  • W4-1Al-Ahli Jeddah

FC St. Pauli · Recent form

  • D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth
  • D2-2Deportivo La Coruna
  • L1-4Bournemouth
  • W2-1HNK Gorica
  • W4-1SV Babelsberg 03

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

See the full recordHow it works

Common questions

Who will win Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

Golazo's model makes Holstein Kiel the more likely winner at 51%, with the draw at 22%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 9%. The model projects 3.7 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 70%, and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

More 2. Bundesliga matches

All 2. Bundesliga fixtures and the table →

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.